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Prediction for CME (2021-11-01T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-11-01T02:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18148/-1
CME Note: Associated with the M1.5 class flare from AR 2887 peaking at 2021-11-01T01:45Z and an eruption with dimming, post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 starting 2021-11-01T01:12Z, as well as an EUV wave. The arrival of this CME could not be clearly identified within the available solar wind data at L1. The event may have been overtaken/combined with faster Earth-directed CMEs observed later on 2021-11-01 and on 2021-11-02.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-04T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18153/1
Model Inputs:
2021-11-01T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=48.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=657.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2021-11-01T07:04Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact: glancing blow:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-04T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T00:59Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211101_070400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 51.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-11-01T22:52Z

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